Gold Prices: Persistent Optimism in the Futures Market

According to the latest Commitments of Traders report by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), there has been an upward trend in the number of open contracts (Open Interest) in the gold futures market. The open interest increased from 444,350 to 452,200 futures contracts (+0.4 percent), reaching its highest level since the end of May. Large speculators (Non-Commercials) have reduced their long positions (down 1,300 futures) less significantly than their short positions (down 5,400 contracts). Interestingly, the number of short-positioned gold futures dropped to 38,700, the lowest level in over four years. Consequently, the net long position (indicating optimistic market expectations) saw a slight increase from 243,100 to 246,200 futures contracts (+1.3 percent). The last time this group of market participants was this optimistic was in April 2022. Small speculators (Non-Reportables) also showed increased optimism, raising their net long position from 24,650 to 25,250 contracts (+2.4 percent).

On Monday morning, gold prices showed a declining trend. By 7:40 AM (CEST), the most actively traded gold future for August had dropped by $8.50 to $2,331.10 per ounce.

Crude Oil: Positive Start to the Week

The price of oil began the new trading week with higher quotations, driven by several factors. On Friday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in oil production and refinery output to the highest levels in four months. Weather-related factors, such as the recent US heatwave (leading to increased electricity consumption) and the earliest Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico, along with geopolitical risks (Ukraine, Red Sea), have led many analysts to expect an oil supply deficit in the upcoming third quarter.

On Monday morning, oil prices rose. By around 7:40 AM (CEST), the next-expiring WTI future had increased by $0.43 to $81.97, while the Brent counterpart climbed by $0.43 to $85.43.

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